Homestead musings: Tony Stewart, Five-Time and more

I may have whiffed on a number of my Homestead predictions, but I nailed the biggest one.

That is, I predicted that there was exactly one way for Tony Stewart to win the 2011 Sprint Cup championship: Win the race.

And that's exactly what Smoke did. He refused to be denied in his quest to win a third career championship, and first as an owner/driver.

Carl Edwards did just about everything in his power to earn his first career Cup title—winning the pole and leading the most laps—but in the end Stewart did the one thing he absolutely had to do to steal the title.

It was disappointing to see Jimmie Johnson go down in the fashion he did on Sunday. The no-longer-efending-Sprint-Cup-champion was running in the top five but had an issue with his carburetor, relegating him to a quiet 32nd-place finish. For the first time in his 10-year career, Johnson finished outside the top five in the final standings (sixth, to be exact).

All in all however, it was an incredible race. NASCAR couldn't have scripted the final chapter in the championship battle any better. The one thing that put a damper on the entire affair was the weather. The three cautions for rain—one causing a red flag period lasting over an hour—were unfortunate, but completely out of NASCAR's hands.

Congrats to 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup champion Tony Stewart!

Tony Stewart Wins Third Sprint Cup Title!

Tony Stewart earned his third career title in dramatic fashion, winning the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway with Carl Edwards hot on his tail.

When the race ended, Stewart and Edwards were exactly tied in the points. However, Stewart won the tiebreaker based on his greater number of victories throughout the season.

Stewart led 65 laps en route to his fifth win of the 2011 Chase, breaking Jimmie Johnson's record of four wins in a single Chase. Stewart, the last driver to win a championship prior to Jimmie Johnson's five-year title reign, became the first to win after the end of Johnson's streak.

It was the first time an owner/driver won the title since Alan Kulwicki won the Winston Cup in 1992, driving for his own underfunded single-car team. Stewart isn't the underdog that Kulwicki was, but it's remarkable to see an owner/driver win the title in this era of NASCAR.

Read the complete story here!

Homestead predictions: Carl vs. Tony and more

There's no shortage of storylines at Homestead. By far the biggest is the championship battle between Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart. Here are six predictions for Sunday's race, from least important to most.

6. Brian Vickers will wreck someone, and be wrecked—and he won't be back in the Cup Series in 2012

Brian Vickers has been a wrecking machine the last few weeks. At Martinsville he seemed to be involved in altercations with half the field, and last week he took Matt Kenseth out of the race. I'd be surprised to see him still running at the end of the race on Sunday.
And Vickers hasn't done himself any favors with potential employers for 2012. After this type of behavior, I doubt he'll find a viable ride in the Cup series for next season.

5. There will be a fight

We’ve seen some entertaining fights at Homestead in recent years—the 2009 fight between Tony Stewart and Juan Montoya comes to mind.

Candidates for a fight include Vickers, Montoya and Martin Truex Jr. I would have included Kyle Busch on this list a few weeks ago, but I don’t think he’ll be stupid enough to do anything foolish at this point, possibly putting his entire NASCAR career at risk.

4. Lame-duck drivers will not run well

I don’t think that David Reutimann, Mark Martin, Brian Vickers, or Clint Bowyer will have strong runs in their last races with the current team.

Sure, these guys and their teams are competitors at heart, but there’s not much to race for and lame-duck teams are at an inherent disadvantage. The one exception to this is Kasey Kahne, who has been running lights-out all Chase long and won the race at Phoenix last week.

3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. will fall out of the top 10

Junior is sitting seventh in the standings, but he won’t rise any higher; Matt Kenseth in sixth is 32 points ahead of him, too far ahead to catch.

However, the four drivers behind Earnhardt in the standings are within 10 points of his position. Junior has no top-10’s at HMS and has finished 27th or worse in the last four races at the track. With another finish like that, he could easily slip to 11th in the standings and miss out on the championship celebrations in Las Vegas next month.

2. Jimmie Johnson will get his 10th straight top-5 points finish

Johnson is currently fifth in the points, two ahead of Matt Kenseth and three behind Brad Keselowski. I don’t think he’ll win on Sunday, but he generally runs well at Homestead and he’ll finish in front of at least one of the two drivers around him in the points.

However, Johnson will finish with fewer than three race victories in a season for the first time in his career. His only wins this season came at Talladega and Kansas.

1. Stewart will win the race and become a 3-time champion

Tony Stewart is three points behind Carl Edwards heading into the finale, and Edwards runs extremely well at Homestead. I think the only way Stewart wins the title is by winning the race—and I predict he’s going to do just that, winning his third championship in emphatic fashion. With five victories during the Chase, no one could say he didn’t earn it.

One-on-one interview: 2003 Trucks champion Travis Kvapil looks to raise his game

There is a lot of uncertainty in the NASCAR garage right now. David Reutimann recently lost his job at Michael Waltrip Racing and Travis Kvapil, driver of the No. 38 Ford for Front Row Motorsports, is another driver whose ride is in limbo.

I had the opportunity to interview Kvapil at Martinsville on October 29. Kvapil hasn't had a Top 10 finish since 2008 while driving for Yates Racing, but the No. 38 team achieved a major goal two races ago with a 21st-place finish at Talladega, moving into the Top 35 in owners' points and guaranteeing the team a starting spot in future races.

The main goal for the team over the remainder of the season is to stay in the Top 35 in owners' points, guaranteeing them a Daytona 500 starting position. Kvapil gave the team a boost by finishing an impressive 16th and on the lead lap at Martinsville.

Of course, Kvapil isn't certain he'll even be with the team in 2012. He certainly hopes to be and he's giving the team his best effort in the meantime.

"Looking forward, I'm not sure how it's going to work out. I hope I’ll be with the team, but we don’t have plans worked out past this year," Kvapil said. "I think leading into 2012 the big priority for the 38 car is keeping it in the Top 35 in points...Obviously, to start the year off guaranteed a spot in the Daytona 500 and the first five races is a huge asset for this team, so that’s goal number one."

Kvapil discussed the challenges his underfunded team has faced throughout the season.

"We’ve had a lot of bad luck and misfortune and just odd things happen to us through the season to hold us back, but hopefully we got that all behind us and we’ve turned the page. The last month or so has gone really well, we’ve had some really good races, and so because of all that we got ourselves back in the Top 35 and we’re just maintaining through the rest of the year."

Kvapil has driven several seasons in NASCAR's Truck series, with nine wins and the 2003 championship to his credit. I asked him whether he'd consider moving back to the trucks if there was a good ride available.

"If there’s an opportunity, you’ve always gotta look at it," Kvapil said. "My goal personally is to be in the Sprint Cup series. I feel like I’ve proven myself at this level, and my biggest career challenge is to ultimately have success and to win races in the Sprint Cup series. I’ve been able to do that—win races, win the championship—in the truck series, so I kind of want to keep moving forward and accomplish the goals that I have."

Kvapil believes that his team is on the cusp of greater things, and hopes to stick around to reap the results of the labors during the past few seasons.

"Front Row Motorsports is a small team, but we’re growing. This is only its fifth or sixth year, and it’s made huge strides in all aspects from being a car that’s just there to a car that is competitive at times," said the 35-year-old driver. "We’re looking to make it a Top-20 car week-in and week-out, and I feel like our team, personnel-wise, is in place. Ford sounds like they’re possibly willing to help us out some more technically, and a few of those things fall into place, and this team can be pretty competitive. I’ve been here for two years now, and I’d like to stay with them and keep growing with them."

I asked Kvapil about the success of Regan Smith and the one-car Furniture Row Racing operation. Smith achieved his first career Cup series win at Darlington earlier this season. "That was really big for Regan. They have a great affiliation with Childress and engineering support, but still, they’re a single car team based out of Denver and doing their own thing. You look at Trevor Bayne, driving part-time in the Wood Brothers car, who was able to go out and win the Daytona 500.

"The way that NASCAR has the rules structured, everybody has a pretty small box to work in, and all the cars are as equal as they’ve ever been," explained the Wisconsin native. "Getting the right equipment, the right people around you, and maybe some sort of technical alliance with a bigger team, are the keys to the smaller teams finding success and having a chance to win races."

Kvapil isn't sure where whether he'll be returning to the No. 38 team in 2012, but with the success he has achieved in his NASCAR career, he should be able to find owners willing to offer him a ride at some level.

5 Reasons Carl Edwards to Believe Carl Edwards Will Win the Title at Homestead

On Sunday, we will witness the perfect NASCAR showdown: Carl Edwards vs. Tony Stewart.

The Ford Nice Guy against the sometimes cantankerous owner/driver.

Only one driver will emerge victorious with the title of NASCAR Sprint Cup champion Sunday evening at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

The title fight has never been closer heading into NASCAR's season finale. Edwards leads Stewart by the slimmest of margins, a mere three points—three positions on the track, or less than the points differential between first place and second.

Who will be Sprint Cup champion come Sunday evening?

Click here for five reasons to believe Carl Edwards is the man to get the job.

My first 2012 prediction: Johnson will be back with a vengeance

For the first time since 2005, Jimmie Johnson will not be hoisting the Sprint Cup championship trophy at Homestead-Miami Speedway following the season finale.

After finishing 14th at Phoenix on Sunday, Johnson is 68 points behind leader Carl Edwards and is mathematically eliminated from title contention.

Now that Jimmie Johnson's unprecedented title streak is finally over, the question is how the No. 48 team will respond in 2012.

Will they fade into the pack and lose their perennial status as the team to beat? Or will they be back with renewed hunger for the title?

To find the answer to that question, let's turn to what Johnson himself has to say regarding the end of his era of dominance. After last week's race at Phoenix, Johnson addressed how he is dealing with the fact that he won't be NASCAR's champion for the first time in six years.

"There's definitely disappointment," Johnson said. "I think that will be the emotion I deal with first. And then over the offseason, I'm sure it will kick in some and reflect. I'll reflect then, but still—in order for us to be where we want to be next year, we've got to work very, very hard during this offseason to understand what's up, and that's not going to make it all that relaxed. So, I'm up for the challenge. This team is. My guys work so hard, and we'll learn and grow from this."

Read my complete analysis on Bleacher Report here.

Debate: Who will win the title, Stewart or Edwards?

Edwards has the obvious advantage in the standings. He leads Stewart by three points heading to the finale at Homestead, a slim lead, but a lead nonetheless.

Edwards is also lights-out at HMS, not to mention being the defending race winner.

For his part, Tony Stewart has the advantage of experience. He's a two time champ, and he's the only driver to win championships under both the old model (points accumulated over the entire season) and the Chase system.

More importantly, Smoke is red hot. He has four wins in the Chase, compared to none for Edwards.

Of course, Edwards has obviously been running well too, or he wouldn't be the points leader.

I predict that Stewart will find a way to get it done, quite possibly winning Sunday's race to earn a third career title in emphatic fashion.

Thoughts?

Jimmie Johnson's Title Streak Officially Over

The No. 48 waits to do battle at Martinsville on October 30.

Before Jimmie Johnson came along, no one had ever won five consecutive NASCAR championships.

 

Nor had anyone won four in a row.

 

In fact, only one other driver had ever won as many as three straight Cup titles—Cale Yarborough, back in 1976-78.

 

It's all over now. 68 points behind leader Carl Edwards and with only the finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway remaining on the Sprint Cup schedule, Johnson is mathematically eliminated from the possibility of winning a sixth consecutive title.

 

There will be time for Johnson digest his unprecedented title run's place in history during the offseason. But first, Johnson must deal with the reality that it has come to an end.

 

"There's definitely disappointment," Johnson said on pit road after Sunday's race at Phoenix. "I think that will be the emotion I deal with first. And then over the offseason, I'm sure it will kick in some and reflect. I'll reflect then, but in order for us to be where we want to be next year, we've got to work very, very hard during this offseason to understand what's up, and that's not going to make it all that relaxed. So, I'm up for the challenge. This team is. My guys work so hard, and we'll learn and grow from this."

 

2011 hasn't provided the results Johnson was hoping for. He was solidly in title contention after winning the Chase race at Kansas, but things have gone downhill since that race in early October. Johnson has only two wins this season, which would be his lowest total ever since becoming a full-time Cup driver in 2002.

 

Johnson finished fourth in the final standings in his rookie season of 2002, and has never finished worse than fifth since. The No. 48 is currently fifth in the points—just two points ahead of sixth-place Matt Kenseth. He'll need a strong run on Sunday to keep that streak of top-five points finishes intact.

 

Johnson is undoubtedly one of the greatest drivers in the history of NASCAR. Now that it is at an end, his incredible title run will begin to be put into perspective.

But one thing is sure. Whether or not Johnson wins another title—or another race, for that matter—his place in NASCAR history is secure.

Michael McDowell trusts God for his future

While covering the Sprint Cup NASCAR weekend at Martinsville Speedway I had the opportunity to meet Michael McDowell. I interviewed the driver of the No. 66 Victory Junction Toyota immediately after he had posted the fastest time in Happy Hour on Saturday.

A start-and-parker for the majority of the season, McDowell's best 2011 Cup finish is 30th at Sonoma in June.

However, he has made the most of the opportunity to drive several races for Joe Gibbs Racing in the Nationwide Series. In five 2011 Nationwide starts, McDowell finished no worse than 12th with a best finish of third. He led 66 laps, including 30 at Road America, where he had the dominant car and won the pole.
The chance to run in top-notch equipment was a breath of fresh air to McDowell.

"Everybody at this level (Sprint Cup) has won a lot of races somewhere. For me, it's been a humbling experience to come into NASCAR and struggle like I have. To get in great equipment at JGR and have a shot to show people what I can do is a lot of fun."

That's not to say McDowell has never made an impression in the Sprint Cup Series. McDowell is perhaps best known for his spectacular crash during Sprint Cup qualifying at Texas in 2008. The video has since become a  YouTube sensation.

"When it first happened, I didn’t know whether it was going to stop. It felt like everything happened in super slow-motion, and it felt like it was never going to stop," said McDowell. "My initial response was, “I hope I don’t lose my job,” because it was only my second Sprint Cup for Michael Waltrip. The team was underfunded at the time anyways, so to go out there and crash in qualifying was not a good thing for my career."

"But to walk away from that is nothing short of miraculous. For me, it just gave me the faith and the confidence that God has me here for a reason. He’s used that crash as a witness tool and a platform for me to share my story."

McDowell, a strong Christian, believes God has a purpose for him being in NASCAR. McDowell doesn't define his life by NASCAR, saying "it's not who I am; it's just what I do."

"I think the faith is something for me that’s not just a backup plan or an emergency thing, it’s a way of life," McDowell added. "To walk away from some of the accidents I’ve walked away from and to stay in this sport and to have the opportunities I’ve had, to drive for JGR this year, I know those are all things God has provided.

"It’s not something I’ve worked for or necessarily earned or deserved, and my perspective on that this is that God can do whatever He wants with whoever He wants, and if He wants me to drive the 24 for Hendrick next year, He could make it happen."

Well, McDowell recently got his wish...almost, anyhow, and a lot sooner than he had imagined.

Mere days after my interview with the driver of the usual start-and-park No. 66, McDowell was called upon to drive the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 machine usually piloted by Kyle Busch.

Busch, of course, had been parked by NASCAR for the Nationwide and Cup events at Texas Motor Speedway after intentionally wrecking truck series championship contender Ron Hornaday Jr. under caution during Friday night's race.

Although McDowell finished in 33rd place, three laps off the lead, the No. 18 car looked as good as new when the race was over and the other two JGR cars had struggled during the race as well.

Looking to the future, McDowell's expectation for 2012 in the Cup series is "to race the 66; we're definitely racing the first five events. We'll try to get ourselves locked in the top 35 and take it from there, and try to build it into something that we can race every weekend," said the 2007 ARCA Series Rookie of the Year.

"This year we’ve been gearing toward that, been buying good cars and running really well. We’re moving in the right direction and hopefully we’ll be able to get locked in and start off the year by making Daytona."

At his core, McDowell is just an ordinary guy, and he's certainly not living the glamorous lifestyle of a Tony Stewart or a Dale Earnhardt Jr.

"I’m 26 years old, I’ve been married for six years now and have almost a three-year-old son. I’m the oldest 26-year-old I think, at least that I know. This sport makes you grow up fast."

NASCAR Sprint Cup Power Rankings after Phoenix

Chasers struggled for the most part on Sunday, opening the door for non-Chasers to steal the limelight.

One of them, Kasey Kahne, took the win from under the noses of Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards. After his Phoenix win, Kahne is clearly the best non-Chaser and arguably the third-best driver in NASCAR at the moment.

Only the title contenders-Stewart and Edwards-have been better lately.

Power Rankings:
1. Tony Stewart
2. Carl Edwards
3. Kasey Kahne
4. Jimmie Johnson
5. Kevin Harvick
6. A.J. Allmendinger
7. Brad Keselowski
8. Ryan Newman
9. Matt Kenseth
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
11. Jeff Burton
12. Jeff Gordon

Read the complete story here.

Kasey Kahne wins at Phoenix!

Kasey Kahne earned his 12th career Sprint Cup win at Phoenix International Raceway, breaking an 81-race winless streak and winning Sunday's Kobalt Tools 500. 

The victory came in Kahne's second-to-last race for Red Bull Racing. Kahne will be driving the No. 5 car for Hendrick Motorsports next season.

Title contender Tony Stewart dominated the first half of the race...

Read the complete race recap here!

Regan Smith hopes 2011 Darlington win leads to 2012 Chase berth

While covering the NASCAR weekend at Martinsville Speedway for Bleacher Report, I had the chance to interview Regan Smith.

Regan is a very likable young man, just an ordinary guy with an insanely cool job. Seriously, who wouldn't want to race cars for a living?

Here's the article I wrote up for B/R based on my interview.

Go No. 78!

Damage to Kevin Harvick's No. 29 after contact with Greg Biffle at Martinsville

At the end of Happy Hour at Martinsville Speedway on Saturday, October 29 (the only Sprint Cup practice all weekend due to rain), Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick had an on-track altercation.

Biffle wasn't happy, and after the conclusion of practice he made it known as the cars moved through the pits area to their garage stalls. He nudged the No. 29 with his No. 16, causing the slight damage seen in the photo.

Gotta love the drama and tempers of NASCAR.

Provided, that is, you're not Ron Hornaday at the receiving end of Kyle Busch's ire at Texas.