Homestead musings: Tony Stewart, Five-Time and more

I may have whiffed on a number of my Homestead predictions, but I nailed the biggest one.

That is, I predicted that there was exactly one way for Tony Stewart to win the 2011 Sprint Cup championship: Win the race.

And that's exactly what Smoke did. He refused to be denied in his quest to win a third career championship, and first as an owner/driver.

Carl Edwards did just about everything in his power to earn his first career Cup title—winning the pole and leading the most laps—but in the end Stewart did the one thing he absolutely had to do to steal the title.

It was disappointing to see Jimmie Johnson go down in the fashion he did on Sunday. The no-longer-efending-Sprint-Cup-champion was running in the top five but had an issue with his carburetor, relegating him to a quiet 32nd-place finish. For the first time in his 10-year career, Johnson finished outside the top five in the final standings (sixth, to be exact).

All in all however, it was an incredible race. NASCAR couldn't have scripted the final chapter in the championship battle any better. The one thing that put a damper on the entire affair was the weather. The three cautions for rain—one causing a red flag period lasting over an hour—were unfortunate, but completely out of NASCAR's hands.

Congrats to 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup champion Tony Stewart!

Homestead predictions: Carl vs. Tony and more

There's no shortage of storylines at Homestead. By far the biggest is the championship battle between Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart. Here are six predictions for Sunday's race, from least important to most.

6. Brian Vickers will wreck someone, and be wrecked—and he won't be back in the Cup Series in 2012

Brian Vickers has been a wrecking machine the last few weeks. At Martinsville he seemed to be involved in altercations with half the field, and last week he took Matt Kenseth out of the race. I'd be surprised to see him still running at the end of the race on Sunday.
And Vickers hasn't done himself any favors with potential employers for 2012. After this type of behavior, I doubt he'll find a viable ride in the Cup series for next season.

5. There will be a fight

We’ve seen some entertaining fights at Homestead in recent years—the 2009 fight between Tony Stewart and Juan Montoya comes to mind.

Candidates for a fight include Vickers, Montoya and Martin Truex Jr. I would have included Kyle Busch on this list a few weeks ago, but I don’t think he’ll be stupid enough to do anything foolish at this point, possibly putting his entire NASCAR career at risk.

4. Lame-duck drivers will not run well

I don’t think that David Reutimann, Mark Martin, Brian Vickers, or Clint Bowyer will have strong runs in their last races with the current team.

Sure, these guys and their teams are competitors at heart, but there’s not much to race for and lame-duck teams are at an inherent disadvantage. The one exception to this is Kasey Kahne, who has been running lights-out all Chase long and won the race at Phoenix last week.

3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. will fall out of the top 10

Junior is sitting seventh in the standings, but he won’t rise any higher; Matt Kenseth in sixth is 32 points ahead of him, too far ahead to catch.

However, the four drivers behind Earnhardt in the standings are within 10 points of his position. Junior has no top-10’s at HMS and has finished 27th or worse in the last four races at the track. With another finish like that, he could easily slip to 11th in the standings and miss out on the championship celebrations in Las Vegas next month.

2. Jimmie Johnson will get his 10th straight top-5 points finish

Johnson is currently fifth in the points, two ahead of Matt Kenseth and three behind Brad Keselowski. I don’t think he’ll win on Sunday, but he generally runs well at Homestead and he’ll finish in front of at least one of the two drivers around him in the points.

However, Johnson will finish with fewer than three race victories in a season for the first time in his career. His only wins this season came at Talladega and Kansas.

1. Stewart will win the race and become a 3-time champion

Tony Stewart is three points behind Carl Edwards heading into the finale, and Edwards runs extremely well at Homestead. I think the only way Stewart wins the title is by winning the race—and I predict he’s going to do just that, winning his third championship in emphatic fashion. With five victories during the Chase, no one could say he didn’t earn it.

My first 2012 prediction: Johnson will be back with a vengeance

For the first time since 2005, Jimmie Johnson will not be hoisting the Sprint Cup championship trophy at Homestead-Miami Speedway following the season finale.

After finishing 14th at Phoenix on Sunday, Johnson is 68 points behind leader Carl Edwards and is mathematically eliminated from title contention.

Now that Jimmie Johnson's unprecedented title streak is finally over, the question is how the No. 48 team will respond in 2012.

Will they fade into the pack and lose their perennial status as the team to beat? Or will they be back with renewed hunger for the title?

To find the answer to that question, let's turn to what Johnson himself has to say regarding the end of his era of dominance. After last week's race at Phoenix, Johnson addressed how he is dealing with the fact that he won't be NASCAR's champion for the first time in six years.

"There's definitely disappointment," Johnson said. "I think that will be the emotion I deal with first. And then over the offseason, I'm sure it will kick in some and reflect. I'll reflect then, but still—in order for us to be where we want to be next year, we've got to work very, very hard during this offseason to understand what's up, and that's not going to make it all that relaxed. So, I'm up for the challenge. This team is. My guys work so hard, and we'll learn and grow from this."

Read my complete analysis on Bleacher Report here.

Jimmie Johnson's Title Streak Officially Over

The No. 48 waits to do battle at Martinsville on October 30.

Before Jimmie Johnson came along, no one had ever won five consecutive NASCAR championships.

 

Nor had anyone won four in a row.

 

In fact, only one other driver had ever won as many as three straight Cup titles—Cale Yarborough, back in 1976-78.

 

It's all over now. 68 points behind leader Carl Edwards and with only the finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway remaining on the Sprint Cup schedule, Johnson is mathematically eliminated from the possibility of winning a sixth consecutive title.

 

There will be time for Johnson digest his unprecedented title run's place in history during the offseason. But first, Johnson must deal with the reality that it has come to an end.

 

"There's definitely disappointment," Johnson said on pit road after Sunday's race at Phoenix. "I think that will be the emotion I deal with first. And then over the offseason, I'm sure it will kick in some and reflect. I'll reflect then, but in order for us to be where we want to be next year, we've got to work very, very hard during this offseason to understand what's up, and that's not going to make it all that relaxed. So, I'm up for the challenge. This team is. My guys work so hard, and we'll learn and grow from this."

 

2011 hasn't provided the results Johnson was hoping for. He was solidly in title contention after winning the Chase race at Kansas, but things have gone downhill since that race in early October. Johnson has only two wins this season, which would be his lowest total ever since becoming a full-time Cup driver in 2002.

 

Johnson finished fourth in the final standings in his rookie season of 2002, and has never finished worse than fifth since. The No. 48 is currently fifth in the points—just two points ahead of sixth-place Matt Kenseth. He'll need a strong run on Sunday to keep that streak of top-five points finishes intact.

 

Johnson is undoubtedly one of the greatest drivers in the history of NASCAR. Now that it is at an end, his incredible title run will begin to be put into perspective.

But one thing is sure. Whether or not Johnson wins another title—or another race, for that matter—his place in NASCAR history is secure.